Thinking about the past decades, I asked Gemini for a analysis of the best decade. The question of which decade was "best" depends entirely on whether one prioritizes the stability of the Western middle class or the survival and upliftment of the global population. When evaluating the metrics of extreme poverty, child mortality, and life expectancy, the data reveals a surprising front-runner that often conflicts with our collective nostalgia.
The Quantitative Winner: The 2010s (2010–2019)
While often characterized by political polarization, the 2010s represented the pinnacle of human material progress across the "Global South."
- The Poverty Milestone: This was the first decade in human history where global extreme poverty fell below 10%. In 1990, nearly 36% of the world lived in extreme poverty; by 2019, that number had plummeted to roughly 9% (World Bank).
- Child Survival: The under-five mortality rate reached its lowest point in history. In 1990, 1 in 11 children died before their fifth birthday; by the end of the 2010s, that risk had dropped to 1 in 27 (UNICEF).
- Global Literacy: Literacy rates reached 86% globally, driven by massive educational investments in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The Geopolitical Winner: The 1990s (1990–1999)
If "best" is defined by the absence of existential dread and the expansion of liberty, the 1990s stand alone.
- The Peace Dividend: Following the end of the Cold War, military spending as a percentage of global GDP declined significantly. The threat of large-scale nuclear conflict reached its lowest point since the 1940s.
- Democratic Surge: This decade saw the largest wave of democratization in history as former Eastern Bloc nations transitioned toward representative governance.
- Economic Stability: Marked by low inflation and steady growth in developed economies, this period saw the birth of the commercial internet, creating a sense of global integration.
The Nostalgia Winner: The 1960s (1963–1969)
For the Western middle class, the mid-1960s represented a unique intersection of high wage growth and low inequality.
- The Great Compression: This was the peak of the "post-war boom" where a single-income household could often support a middle-class lifestyle in the U.S. and Western Europe.
- The Global Reality Check: However, for the rest of the world, 1963 was an era of struggle. More than 50% of the global population lived in extreme poverty, and life expectancy was only 53 years (Our World in Data).
Comparative Snapshot: 1963 vs. 2019
| Indicator | 1963 (The Baseline) | 2019 (The Peak Progress) |
|---|---|---|
| Global Life Expectancy | ~53 Years | ~73 Years |
| Extreme Poverty Rate | >50% | <10% |
| Child Mortality (Under 5) | ~18% | ~3.7% |
Strategic Outlook for the 2020s
The current decade has marked the first significant reversal in these trends in over 60 years. The convergence of the pandemic, the return of interstate war in Europe, and global inflation has slowed poverty reduction. For organizational strategy, this shifts the focus from "expansion" to "resilience." The five-year outlook requires navigating a world that is technologically superior but geopolitically more fragmented than the peak years of the 2010s.
Works Cited
"Child Mortality." UNICEF Data, 2023, https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-survival/under-five-mortality/.
"Poverty." Our World in Data, 2024, https://ourworldindata.org/poverty.
"World Development Indicators." World Bank, 2024, https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/.
